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For the period 1995 to 2005, the clock rates for these devices
are anticipated to grow by factors of 3.2 and 2.9, respectively. The density
data is specified for low cost, high volume microprocessors and for low volume
ASICs. Over the same time period noted above, the growth factor for both types
of ASICs is projected to be 8.5.
Based upon these projections, and with consideration of all
other design drivers, the SIA report provides power dissipation estimates for
high performance microprocessors and ASICs. This data is shown in Figures 4
and 5. Again using the period from 1995 to 2005, the dissipation growth factor
for microprocessors is 1.8. The ASIC dissipation is expected to double between
1995 and 2001, and then remain flat.
Figure 4: Projected power dissipation values for high
performance microprocessors.
Figure 5: Projected power dissipation values for high
performance ASICs.
Printed Wiring Board Design
With regard to circuit board design, the primary dissipation drivers
are similar to the chip drivers noted above. While there is a corresponding
desire to use conventional cooling techniques and keep power consumption low,
there are also similar pushes in terms of board throughput and circuit pack
densities. These figures tend to be proprietary so industry data is scarce.
Figure 6 contains current and projected density data for 11 different boards
used in Lucent products. The ten-year growth rate factors for these products
range from 3.2 to 9.9. Assuming that this data is generally representative,
circuit pack densities are clearly rising at a rapid pace.
Figure 6: Actual and projected circuit pack densities
for 90 printed wiring board designs.
Lucent has also collected board heat dissipation on 90 different
board designs. The data is relatively flat from mid-1991 (i.e., the start date
of the data set) until mid-1996. The average power dissipation over that period
is 0.035 W/sq.cm. In contrast, some new designs are at 0.2 W/sq.cm., a 5.7 factor
increase in dissipation.
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