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 Post subject: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:58 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:49 am
Posts: 52
Cloud-based storage is inherently the most silent and minimalistic storage. In the case of tablets and phones, this will be the future. Micro SD cards (used for relatively smaller file sizes) are fallible, fixed in size and an inconvenience to move around. Services like Google Drive, Dropbox and OneDrive will develop into better alternatives in this regard, as software becomes better designed. However, desktop PC's inite in size, However, for desktop PC's, I'm not convinced. Some of the most common uses for custom PC builds are recording studios, film/photo editing, computer games and servers: All of those purposes rely on large file sizes which are immediately accessible. There's also doubts on security and an aversion to the fact that paying for large cloud capacity on a regular basis versus paying once and owning it forever.

Solid state drives are the best choice for silent builds (and all builds that want significantly faster booting and loading times in general). However, they are expensive. Samsung announced a plan to significantly reduce the cost of SSD's by 2020 (to 2016 HDD levels). We could see some of this progress in 2018 and 2019. As a result, it is best to buy as much storage as you need (and don't try to future proof). Soon enough 1TB SSD's will be affordable enough for the masses.

One contentious prediction I will make is that Hard Drives will not become obsolete within the next 10 years at all, assuming that their price keeps dropping and the builder is okay with a 25-30db PC instead of a 20db PC. The possibility of a $20 2TB hard drive within the next few years is just too alluring. For higher budgets, many builders will add an HDD or two just because they can (and want to get the most out of their system). For lower end builds, price is king and even as SSD prices go down, if even $20-50 could be saved by going for an HDD alongside the lowest capacity SSD (instead of a high-end capacity), builders will go that route. In mid-range, people may consider having to use a larger SSD size as an opportunity cost against having a higher-end processor.


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 Post subject: Re: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:11 pm 
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Consider that HDDs for long term storage don't always have to be spinning. My archive HDD just spins up at boot/wake for a few minutes and when accessed. Otherwise it's not spinning/not adding to the noise environment at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:30 pm 
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Location: Guatemala
I expect HDD to be relevant at least 5 years, probably more, SSDs are going down in price but not as fast, i do expect at some point to have 3.5 ssds with a lot higher capacity with slower and cheaper nad, but still nad today is very expensive, a 4tb ssd like 850evo costs $1500, if it existed an 8tb version would be above $3k, considering that you can get a 8tb WD Red inside a MyBook for $200, its still a very big difference, expecting SSDs half price every 1.5 years... it will take at least 6 years to reach $187, but by that time we will probably have 20tb+ HDD, but the ssds will be catching up, so around 9 years is where i expect we will start to see SSDs hit mainstream on storage, probably before as not everybody will need that amount for storage.

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 Post subject: Re: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:48 pm 
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CA_Steve wrote:
Consider that HDDs for long term storage don't always have to be spinning. My archive HDD just spins up at boot/wake for a few minutes and when accessed. Otherwise it's not spinning/not adding to the noise environment at all.


This is a good point, although, it depends on the use. Will it spin while media files are actively used? Even so, the only time a 100% silent computer is needed is during recording (and other specialized uses). Apart from that, a small amount of noise while media content with sound is active won't be a problem.


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 Post subject: Re: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:00 pm 
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Abula wrote:
a 4tb ssd like 850evo costs $1500 ... expecting SSDs half price every 1.5 years... it will take at least 6 years to reach $187, but by that time we will probably have 20tb+ HDD


These are very large numbers. It's kind of hard for me to conceive files needing that much space, but 20 years ago, people probably wouldn't have thought a program could have required more than 1GB of space. Perhaps developers do design their programs in mind of how much storage most people have. Though, by the time I will need a 4TB SSD, it will be affordable.

In two years from now, I'd love to buy 2TB SSD's and never use a hard drive again. Although, many people will continue to use hard drives for their gigantic storage capacity and low price.

Quote:
but the ssds will be catching up, so around 9 years is where i expect we will start to see SSDs hit mainstream on storage, probably before as not everybody will need that amount for storage.


9 years is a reasonable estimate of when SSD's will be more prevalent than HDD's. But they will be mainstream even sooner. Apple computers use them already due to their philosophy of smaller form factor and no moving parts. Most laptops/desktops will enjoy the benefits of SSD when it gets to a low enough price point for manufacturers to include them in without significantly reducing the profitability of the product.


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 Post subject: Re: Storage (In The Next 5 Years)
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:15 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 12:22 pm
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Location: Guatemala
Derek Semeraro wrote:
These are very large numbers. It's kind of hard for me to conceive files needing that much space, but 20 years ago
Things change over time, memory needs increases, gpus memories also increases, specially with 4k starting to enter mainstream it will require a lot more space not only on memory, but even for storing movies, an average remux right now is around 25gb, a 4k x265 is already going into 60gb, not considering the super extended versions studios release on certain movies. I welcome more space, specially if its silent, but then again im not the average user, i do think we have reach a point where there are not as big of a need in many aspects, like CPUs do a lot more than people use them on their daily browsing and office work, storage is also sufficient for the average user even on ssds, TV/Monitors that have resolutions that barely benefit from our viewing positions... and so on, I feel we are on an age where tech has catch up to the needs of most, and now we are just consuming for consuming....

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