Its impossible to say right now. The numbers of 5-15% are over a priod of 3 years. It could be that typical fail will start happening only after a year or two. Who knows?
My question was a rhetorical one
They have no incentive to overestimate. They have every incentive to underestimate. And there is no way for anyone to verify what they are saying.
This is true even for internal Intel estimates (you think the VP supervising the design is going to go out of his way to make it look worse to his boss... or maybe shade it toward being not quite as bad as it is). This is more so for the external estimates provided to the public.
I personally don't think that it is plausible that they would voluntarily spend $1 Billion correcting an error as minor as the one they claim to be correcting. They caught it early before too many bad boards got out. They could fix it with $100M of free addon cards and a $20M to $100M class action settlement (no damages means not much of a class action).
What monetary damages can you have with a free addon card? "Oh but it will hurt their reputation." Yeah sure... everyone will then run over to buy AMD. I don't think so. Intel customer loyalty is based on superior product not on a reputation of greater reliability than AMD. If AMD came up with even an equal product, Intel would lose millions of customers right away - just from currently "loyal" customers who would prefer to use another vendor. Whatever minor damage to their reputation there has been, occurred with the initial announcement and was unavoidable.
The people running Intel are not slow witted people. They don't waste money on a needless recall over a defect that is no worse than the standard fare many electronics manufacturers sell as a matter of course
. Think Apple's "can you hear me now" antenna problem. That was a real problem - the iphone has only one antennae - if it doesn't work that is a big problem. Did they waste $1B recalling that? Did Apple lose any customers over it?
The Intel recall means that all the evidence of whatever the problem is will soon disappear... and anyone keeping a board and then foolishly complaining about it in the future will be disregarded as an wacky whiner. We will never truly know how badly they screwed up.