For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

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Nec_V20
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For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Nec_V20 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:59 pm

Totally off topic, but for those wanting to have a flutter on political betting here are a couple of good outside bets that have a real chance of happening:

1) Republican Presidential nominee - Paul Ryan

2) Hillary Clinton's running mate - Elizabeth Warren.

Reachable
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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Reachable » Sat Apr 30, 2016 4:54 am

If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz they'll be able to beat Hillary, so the Democrats had better use the superdelegates to nominate Bernie, who can defeat anyone.

Nec_V20
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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Nec_V20 » Sat Apr 30, 2016 6:08 am

Reachable wrote:If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz they'll be able to beat Hillary, so the Democrats had better use the superdelegates to nominate Bernie, who can defeat anyone.
Bernie is pretty much out of the race now. However the "Bernie can beat everyone" meme pretty much ignores the fact that Bernie is an unknown entity and has been treated with kid gloves. The other thing is that the turnout for the Democratic nomination is significantly down from 2008. So Bernie isn't really turning the enthusiasm into getting people off their backsides to actually vote.

If Bernie did get the nomination then he would get destroyed in the US media which is very much to the right of centre. I would point to the scandal of Flint Michigan and we both know that if it had been a Democratic governor there, then the entire media would have been all over it 24/7. Because it is a Republican governor who bears the entire responsibility for this scandal of monumental proportions gets barely a mention.

Hillary has been vilified in the media for decades and there is nothing much they can really throw at her any more. Bernie on the other hand would be destroyed by the media if he did get the nomination and I don't think there would be much left of him by the time of the election.

In the UK we are allowed to bet online and I put £5 down on Paul Ryan to get the Republican nomination and at the time about two and a half months ago I got 100-1. The odds have shortened somewhat (25-1) now that the possibility is being talked about in the media.

If Clinton gets the nomination then she doesn't have very many good choices aside from Elizabeth Warren as a running mate. I got 20-1 odds about a month and a half ago and I put a £5 bet on that but those odds have shortened as well (7-1). Clinton would need someone to get the base mobilised.

Of course for pure comedy gold you couldn't beat a Trump/Palin ticket.

The last time I bet on anything was the 2014 World Cup where I bet £5 on both Germany and Holland. I thought to myself with Paul Ryan and Elizabeth Warren that it wasn't worth putting a large bet on, but I thought I would have a go for £5.

There are never any certainties, but I thought it was worth a flutter.

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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by NeilBlanchard » Sat Apr 30, 2016 9:55 am

Reachable wrote:If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz they'll be able to beat Hillary, so the Democrats had better use the superdelegates to nominate Bernie, who can defeat anyone.
I agree. Bernie is the best candidate of my lifetime, and as the saying goes, it is not over until it is over. A lot of things can happen.
Sincerely, Neil
http://neilblanchard.blogspot.com/

Nec_V20
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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Nec_V20 » Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:58 pm

NeilBlanchard wrote:
Reachable wrote:If the Republicans nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz they'll be able to beat Hillary, so the Democrats had better use the superdelegates to nominate Bernie, who can defeat anyone.
I agree. Bernie is the best candidate of my lifetime, and as the saying goes, it is not over until it is over. A lot of things can happen.
It's all about getting people to get off their backsides to vote.

Obama did it and he wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan in 2008 - giving Hillary a free ride there.

Even without Superdelegates Hillary has built up a lead in pledged delegates that Bernie just cannot beat. With regard to Superdelegates Bernie doesn't really have a hope of swaying them.

I hope he stays in the race however. Politically I am more aligned with Bernie (actually to the left of Bernie). I was elected to the local council as a member of the Green Party in Germany, and if I were to compare the Democratic Party in the US to parties in the German parliament they would be to the right politically of the most right-wing party namely the CSU.

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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by xan_user » Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:58 pm

anyone who would want that job is certifiably insane.
our job is to pick the least crazy one -well those of US in the electoral college that is.
Help SPCR keep the lights on, use these links when you buy: NCIX, Amazon and Newegg

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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Reachable » Thu May 05, 2016 8:50 am

Nec_V20, is it legal to bet on U.K. elections, or only those in foreign lands?

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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Nec_V20 » Thu May 05, 2016 3:44 pm

Reachable wrote:Nec_V20, is it legal to bet on U.K. elections, or only those in foreign lands?
In the UK you can bet on anything.

One of the funniest ones was back in the day when Princess Diana first became pregnant you could bet on a lot of things, one of the funniest was a friend of mine who got odds on the baby being black.

Nec_V20
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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Nec_V20 » Thu May 05, 2016 3:48 pm

One bet down and one bet still alive. :)

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Re: For those wanting a tip on the 2016 Presidential race

Post by Reachable » Fri May 06, 2016 2:24 am

Nec_V20 wrote:One bet down and one bet still alive. :)
Maybe both bets still alive. Don't think that there aren't people trying to come up with schemes to change the rules.

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